ALP 21.6%
Incumbent MP
Lance McCallum, since 2020.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Bundamba covers the eastern Ipswich suburbs of Goodna, Redbank, Blackstone, Ebbw Vale, Riverview, Collingwood Park, Bellbird Park, Redbank Plains, Brookwater, Springfield Lakes and parts of Bundamba and Springfield. The seat covers the eastern parts of Ipswich local government area.
History
The seat of Bundamba existed from 1873 to 1912. The current seat was created in 1992, and has been held by the ALP since then.
Bob Gibbs won the seat for the ALP in 1992. Gibbs had served as member for Wolston since 1977, and moved to Bundamba when his former seat was abolished.
Gibbs served as a minister in the Goss government from 1989 to 1996. He again served as a minister in the Beattie government from 1998 until his resignation from Parliament in 1999.
The seat was won by the ALP’s Jo-Ann Miller at a 2000 by-election. She held the seat for the next twenty years, winning re-election seven times.
Miller resigned from parliament in early 2020, and the subsequent by-election was won by Labor’s Lance McCallum.
Candidates
- Lance McCallum (Labor)
- Sharon Bell (One Nation)
- Angela Lowery (Animal Justice)
- Danielle Mutton (Greens)
- Rob Shearman (Liberal National)
Assessment
Bundamba was a very safe Labor seat in the absence of One Nation. Even the presence of One Nation did not make the 2020 by-election that close, so Labor will likely retain this seat with relative ease in 2020.
2017 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jo-Ann Miller | Labor | 13,883 | 53.3 | -11.8 |
| Patrick Herbert | Liberal National | 3,949 | 15.2 | -5.1 |
| Michelle Duncan | Greens | 2,842 | 10.9 | +3.0 |
| Patricia Petersen | Independent | 2,599 | 10.0 | +10.0 |
| Shan Ju Lin | Independent | 1,413 | 5.4 | +5.4 |
| Trev Judd | Independent | 1,338 | 5.1 | +5.1 |
| Informal | 2,337 | 8.2 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jo-Ann Miller | Labor | 18,621 | 71.6 | -4.3 |
| Patrick Herbert | Liberal National | 7,403 | 28.4 | +4.3 |
2020 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lance McCallum | Labor | 9,134 | 42.2 | -11.2 |
| Sharon Bell | One Nation | 6,006 | 27.7 | +27.7 |
| Robert Shearman | Liberal National | 3,589 | 16.6 | +1.4 |
| Danielle Mutton | Greens | 2,924 | 13.5 | +2.6 |
| Informal | 2,644 | 10.9 |
2020 by-election two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lance McCallum | Labor | 12,949 | 59.8 | |
| Sharon Bell | One Nation | 8,704 | 40.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Bundamba have been divided into three areas: central, south-east and west. The south-east makes up a majority of the ordinary election day vote.
The ALP won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas at the 2017 election, ranging from 68.6% in the west to 74.4% in the south-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.5% in the centre to 19% in the south-east. Patricia Petersen came fourth, with a vote ranging from 9.2% in the west to 13.2% in the centre.
The 2020 by-election was closer, with Labor’s two-candidate-preferred vote (against One Nation) ranging from 57% in the west to 62.5% in the south-east.
The LNP came third, with 15% in the centre and south-east and 16% in the west.
2017 booth breakdown
| Voter group | GRN prim % | Petersen prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 19.0 | 10.5 | 74.4 | 10,836 | 41.6 |
| Central | 8.5 | 13.2 | 73.4 | 3,888 | 14.9 |
| West | 18.4 | 9.2 | 68.6 | 3,048 | 11.7 |
| Other votes | 14.7 | 7.5 | 67.9 | 4,018 | 15.4 |
| Pre-poll | 17.0 | 8.5 | 68.2 | 4,234 | 16.3 |
2020 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 16.3 | 57.4 | 4,517 | 20.9 |
| South-East | 15.1 | 62.5 | 4,471 | 20.6 |
| Central | 15.2 | 61.4 | 1,897 | 8.8 |
| Pre-poll | 17.3 | 59.6 | 9,174 | 42.4 |
| Other votes | 19.3 | 58.1 | 1,594 | 7.4 |
Election results in Bundamba at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Greens primary votes and primary votes for independent candidate Patricia Petersen.
Election results at the 2020 Bundamba by-election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs One Nation) and LNP primary votes.
There seems to be a belt of One Nation votes covering south-west to south of Brisbane in seats like Locker, Ipswich, Bundamba, Jordan, south end of Algester and Logan. I concur that the real challenge is from ONP in this seat, and am surprised the LNP haven’t just gone in with the same candidate (save on campaign resources) as ALP, ONP and GRN have all turned up for a re-match. Sharon Bell does have some profile here, but I just don’t think it’ll be enough again.
Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain
September prediction: Labor retain
The fact this is one of 7 seats the LNP have not listed with a candidate on their website really shows the game here. Still see no change from my August Notes.
Prediction (September 2020): ALP Retain [no change]
Prediction: ALP Retain
Labor retain
ALP hold
ALP retain